Brendan HalsteadResearch Contractor
Research institute · Research orgs · Berkeley, CA · Est. 2024
AI Futures Project is a U.S.-based 501(c)(3) nonprofit research organization focused on scenario forecasting for advanced AI and strategic preparedness. It frames its work as combining detailed “timelines and takeoff” forecasting with policy-relevant scenarios and recommendations intended to help the world prepare before high-impact advanced AI events occur.
Publications are not yet indexed for this organization. Read them on aifutures.org ↗.
The team posted an updated approach for forecasting coding automation timelines, including changes in how they model “uplift and revenue” anchoring for the AI Futures Model.
AI Futures Project posts “How to pace the US frontier”The team published domestic AI pacing proposals (for minimizing existential risk), describing several regulatory options intended to moderate the time at which AIs above a capability level are developed within U.S. jurisdiction.
Axios: AI Futures Project calls for delaying superintelligence to 2040Axios reported on a proposal by the AI Futures Project (a nonprofit) calling for delaying the development of superintelligence to 2040.
AI Futures Project releases “AI 2040: Plan A”The organization announced the release of “AI 2040: Plan A,” describing it as a recommendation (not a prediction) and directing readers to the full scenario at ai-2040.com.
AI Futures Project publishes “AI Futures Model: Dec 2025 Update”The team posted a Dec 2025 update describing how the AI Futures Model works, presenting timelines and takeoff forecasts, and comparing the model to earlier AI 2027 timelines.